The gyrations of a pointless and uncaring universe

brew gear shakedown
19 April, 2026
- beer
🍺 Cascade West Coast Pale — Brew Day Plan (Anvil + Sparge, Adjusted)
📋 Targets
- OG: ~1.050
- FG: ~1.010
- ABV: ~5.2%
- IBUs: ~50–55 (from 60 min addition)
- Batch Size: 5 gallons
- Yeast: BRY-97
🌙 Night Before
Water
- Strike: 6.5 gal
- Sparge: 1.5–2 gal (separate)
- Add: ½ Campden tablet (crushed)
Preheat
- Set Anvil to 158°F
Measure
- Gypsum: ~1.75–2 tsp
- CaCl₂: ~0.5 tsp
Stage
- Grain ready
- Hops measured:
  - 2 oz (60 min) ✔ already used
  - 0.5 oz (5 min)
  - 1 oz (whirlpool)
  - 1 oz dry hop (early)
  - 1–1.5 oz dry hop (late)
☀️ Brew Day
Mash (0:00)
- Add salts to strike water
- Mash in at 152°F
- Hold 60 min
- Stir once or twice
Sparge (1:00)
- Heat sparge water to 170°F
- Lift basket
- Slowly sparge 1.5–2 gal (10–15 min)
Boil (60 min)
Already added:
- 2 oz Cascade @ 60 min
Skip:
- ❌ No 30 min addition
- ❌ No 15 min addition
At 5 min:
- Add 0.5 oz Cascade
- Add Whirlfloc (optional)
Flameout / Whirlpool
1. Turn off heat
2. Cool to ~180°F
3. Add 1 oz Cascade
4. Stir gently once
5. Let steep 10–15 minutes
6. Do NOT boil
Chill
- Chill to 66–68°F
Transfer
- Transfer to conical
- Aerate well (shake/splash/O₂)
Pitch Yeast
- Pitch BRY-97 at ~66°F
🌡️ Fermentation
- Days 0–3: 66°F
- Then rise to 68°F
- Total: ~10–14 days
🌿 Dry Hop
Day 3 (active fermentation)
- Add 1 oz Cascade
Day 7 (post fermentation)
- Add 1–1.5 oz Cascade
❄️ Optional Cold Crash
- 35–40°F for 2–3 days
🍺 Kegging
- Transfer to keg
- Carbonate to ~2.4 vols CO₂
🧠 Key Notes
- Do NOT remove early hops
- Skip mid-boil additions (already high IBUs)
- Whirlpool = steep at 180°F, not spinning
- Focus on aroma, not more bitterness
- Keep fermentation temps controlled early
🥇 Outcome
- Firm bitterness
- Bright Cascade aroma
- Clean, crisp West Coast pale
Comments
Berkshire post Buffet
12 March, 2026
For 20(?) years I’ve used berkshire hathaway as a balance to the rest of my tech heave portfolio. And buffet has been great but he and munger are gone now. I could get out now via an exchange fund but I would basically be betting that berkshire will underform the tech heave sp 500 by 0.53% if I do that.
So I asked chat gpt here’s the AI slop below.
Will Berkshire Hathaway Still Beat the Market After Buffett?
A question I’ve been thinking about while considering whether to exchange Berkshire Hathaway stock into a diversification fund:
Why assign something like a 40% probability that Berkshire still outperforms the market once Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger are gone?
Buffett and Munger were extraordinary outliers. Expecting their successors to replicate that performance seems unrealistic. But Berkshire is also not a normal company — it has structural advantages that could still generate some alpha.
Below is how I think about the question.
1. First principle: Buffett’s performance was statistically extreme
From 1965–2023 approximately:
Metric Berkshire S&P 500
Annual return ~19.8% ~10.2%
Excess return ~9–10%
Sustaining ~10% annual alpha for nearly 60 years is almost unheard of in financial history.
Implication:
Even if Berkshire’s next leaders are excellent, the base-rate expectation is regression toward the market average.
The real question therefore becomes:
Does Berkshire still possess structural advantages that could generate some modest alpha even without Buffett?
2. Greg Abel (future CEO)
Background
Greg Abel currently runs Berkshire’s non-insurance operating businesses and previously led Berkshire Hathaway Energy.
Under his leadership:
- MidAmerican / Berkshire Hathaway Energy grew from a ~$2B acquisition
- to a $100B+ enterprise
- with major expansion into renewables and infrastructure.
Strengths
Investors tend to view Abel as strong in three areas:
- operational discipline
- large-scale capital deployment
- internal credibility with Buffett
Buffett himself has repeatedly said:
“Greg understands capital allocation.”
That is a remarkable endorsement coming from Buffett.
Limitations
However, Abel is not Buffett.
He is:
- not a public equities investor
- not known for macro insight
- not a famous stock picker
Abel’s role will likely be more about capital allocation across Berkshire’s businesses, not selecting individual stocks.
Confidence: very high.
3. Todd Combs and Ted Weschler (investment managers)
These two investment managers already run a significant portion of Berkshire’s equity portfolio.
Estimated capital under management inside Berkshire:
Manager Estimated Capital
Todd Combs ~$15–20B
Ted Weschler ~$15–20B
They have been responsible for several notable investments widely believed to include:
- Apple position expansion
- Snowflake
- Amazon
- Charter Communications
Their historical records
Ted Weschler
- Ran Peninsula Capital
- Reportedly achieved ~30% annual returns over ~20 years
Todd Combs
- Ran Castle Point Capital
- Generated ~13–14% annual returns
Both are impressive investors, but neither has demonstrated Buffett-level results over decades with massive capital.
4. Structural advantages Berkshire still has
Even without Buffett’s stock picking ability, Berkshire retains several advantages that few companies possess.
Insurance float
Berkshire’s insurance subsidiaries generate enormous float.
Roughly: ~$160B+
This float effectively acts as low-cost leverage.
Most investment firms cannot replicate this structure.
Permanent capital
Unlike mutual funds or hedge funds, Berkshire never faces:
- investor redemptions
- quarterly capital flows
- forced selling
This allows Berkshire to hold investments far longer than typical asset managers.
Opportunistic crisis investing
During financial crises Berkshire has repeatedly negotiated unusually favorable deals:
Investment Terms
Goldman Sachs (2008) 10% preferred shares
Bank of America (2011) preferred + warrants
Occidental Petroleum (2019) 8% preferred
These deals occur because Berkshire can deploy huge amounts of capital quickly.
Massive cash reserves
Berkshire currently holds roughly: $160B+ in cash and T-bills
In a financial crisis this becomes extremely valuable optionality.
5. Reasons Berkshire could underperform
There are also real structural headwinds.
Size
Berkshire’s market capitalization is roughly: ~$900B
At that scale it becomes difficult to find investments large enough to materially move the needle.
Apple concentration
Apple has represented roughly 40%+ of Berkshire’s public equity portfolio.
Future Berkshire performance is therefore heavily linked to Apple’s trajectory.
Cultural dependence on Buffett
Buffett shaped:
- Berkshire’s acquisition discipline
- its reputation for fair deals
- its investor trust
That reputation may weaken somewhat after he is gone.
6. A realistic probability model
Based on historical base rates for great investors and Berkshire’s structural advantages:
Scenario Probability
Slight alpha (1–2%) ~35–40%
Market-like returns ~40–50%
Underperformance ~15–25%
This leads to an expected alpha near zero but slightly positive, which is why I assign roughly a 40% chance that Berkshire still modestly outperforms the market.
Confidence: moderate (~60%).
7. The real decision framework
For investors deciding whether to hold Berkshire or diversify, the question becomes:
Do you believe Berkshire will beat the market by more than ~0.5% annually?
Why 0.5%?
Because that is roughly the annual cost of many diversification strategies such as exchange funds.
If Berkshire’s expected excess return is:
- >0.5% annually → holding Berkshire may be rational
- <0.5% annually → diversification may be preferable
8. My current view
My expectation for Berkshire over the next couple of decades:
Factor Outlook
Management quality Very strong
Structural advantages Significant
Ability to replicate Buffett alpha Very unlikely
Chance of mild alpha Reasonable
In other words:
Berkshire will likely remain an exceptionally well-run conglomerate that performs roughly like the market, perhaps slightly better in some environments.
Which is still a remarkable outcome for a $900B company.
One final observation
Going forward, Berkshire’s biggest performance driver may not be stock picking at all.
It may simply be interest rates.
With over $160B in Treasury bills, every 1% increase in short-term rates generates roughly: ~$1.6B additional annual earnings
That dynamic did not exist during the zero-rate era — and it may shape Berkshire’s future returns more than most investors realize.
Comments

Metric	Berkshire	S&P 500
Annual return	~19.8%	~10.2%
Excess return	~9–10%

Manager	Estimated Capital
Todd Combs	~$15–20B
Ted Weschler	~$15–20B

Investment	Terms
Goldman Sachs (2008)	10% preferred shares
Bank of America (2011)	preferred + warrants
Occidental Petroleum (2019)	8% preferred

Scenario	Probability
Slight alpha (1–2%)	~35–40%
Market-like returns	~40–50%
Underperformance	~15–25%

Factor	Outlook
Management quality	Very strong
Structural advantages	Significant
Ability to replicate Buffett alpha	Very unlikely
Chance of mild alpha	Reasonable

Grocery Stores in major metros

11 March, 2026

In case you wanted to know the major grocery store distributions. (kroger and albertsons have a ton of sub brands)

More data coming in hte future https://github.com/paulgmiller/careme/issues/99

metro_name	zip_code	albertsons	aldi	heb	kroger	publix	walmart	wegmans	wholefoods	total
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta GA	30044	0	25	0	10	72	31	0	7	145
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson MD	21234	15	21	0	2	0	15	3	3	59
Boston-Cambridge-Newton MA-NH	02169	41	4	0	0	0	10	3	22	80
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia NC-SC	28277	0	19	0	10	16	20	0	3	68
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin IL-IN-WI	60629	88	87	0	10	0	25	0	18	228
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington TX	75040	48	25	6	10	0	50	0	10	149
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood CO	80249	19	0	0	10	0	21	0	7	57
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn MI	48235	0	37	0	10	0	17	0	4	68
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land TX	77084	11	20	46	10	0	39	0	10	136
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim CA	90011	73	24	0	10	0	30	0	25	162
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach FL	33186	0	16	0	0	68	16	0	5	105
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington MN-WI	55432	0	38	0	0	0	13	0	7	58
New York-Newark-Jersey City NY-NJ-PA	11368	17	25	0	0	0	13	1	35	91
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford FL	34787	0	19	0	0	65	30	0	3	117
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington PA-NJ-DE-MD	19120	55	45	0	0	0	28	5	11	144
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler AZ	85383	22	5	0	10	0	21	0	0	58
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro OR-WA	97086	50	0	0	10	0	16	0	8	84
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario CA	92880	43	18	0	6	0	29	0	2	98
San Antonio-New Braunfels TX	78249	0	0	52	0	0	34	0	2	88
San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad CA	92154	29	4	0	5	0	14	0	1	53
San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley CA	94565	32	0	0	1	0	7	0	5	45
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA	98032	62	0	0	10	0	11	0	6	89
St. Louis MO-IL	63136	0	40	0	4	0	21	0	3	68
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater FL	33647	0	21	0	0	54	25	0	2	102
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria DC-VA-MD-WV	20906	56	35	0	5	0	9	8	23	136
total		661	528	104	133	275	545	20	222	2488

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Whistler 2026
21 February, 2026
- family
- photos
Comments
Linux desktop
20 February, 2026
- tech
On the first day after my last day at MSFT, I reimaged all my machines. Windows itself is not bad (SSH, PowerShell, and WSL are fine), but the junk our IT department installs definitely is. So while I was reimaging, I decided it was time for Linux desktops on my three machines.
Bee / Nuc + Omakub
This has worked pretty well. Camera and audio are fine. I had to fight a Bluetooth mouse disconnect, but ChatGPT seemed to figure it out. Chrome, VSCode, Spotify all seem fine. Still using GNOME Terminal over Alacritty some of the time. Omakub certainly has options.
Omarchy on my pc part picker build (ryzen)
This has been fun. Tiling window manager, no overlap. It is better at forcing you to organize things. Browser tabs still get out of control though. I have not dug into Arch/Pacman yet. But it does seem to go down when not in use overnight, so I need to figure out uptime. Maybe CPU idle bug?
Ubuntu 25 on Lenovo Snapdragon
FAQ Oof, this is pretty painful. Writing this because it just hard-rebooted twice, and ChatGPT and I could not find much in journalctl. Suspend does not really work and drains your battery overnight. Dealing with that by powering off on laptop lid close, but it sucks to lose anything you did not save. Audio and camera don’t work. Even when not suspended, battery life does not seem quite as good. No Chrome, which is mostly a problem since it is my password manager. I exported and imported, but it does not seem sustainable.
Still in queue.
Bluefin/Fedora and ground-up NixOS. Also, do I take the Neovim pill?
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